Friday, December 18, 2015

Will Public International Law Tame the Red Dragon?

“I can give you 39 reasons why China owns the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea. It's in their South Fleet.” This jest made by a friend when he was asked to defend the China in the Philippine-China arbitration case reflects the skepticism towards international law— that States may disregard it whenever it runs contrary to their interests; that hard power dictates the outcome of a dispute. The recent ruling on jurisdiction by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), however, may be a game changer for the future of public international law.

The pending case concerns the legality of China’s “nine-dash line” claim over West Philippine Sea/South China Sea. The Philippines rejects this claim, stipulating that it is baseless and against the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), of which both countries are a party to. China refuses to participate in the arbitration, insisting that the two states resolve the dispute through bilateral negotiations. The PCA, however, ruled that it had jurisdiction over the dispute, and China’s non-appearance does not divest it of such jurisdiction.

Despite the pronouncements of the PCA, China continues to (not-so-subtly) demonstrate its power and control over the area by constructing man-made islands[1], preventing Filipino fishers from fishing in the area[2], and warning, through its Chinese newspaper editorials, certain foreign aircrafts from flying over the South China Sea[3]. China definitely means business. But why would it declare war in a heartbeat to gain control of the disputed area?

Although the South China Sea is known for its wealth of natural resources, it may be the geopolitical importance of the body of water that China is more interested in. The strategic position of the South China Sea has important military implications that could give China great naval advantage should hostilities ensue.[4] This apparent from the US interest in protecting the area from Chinese domination; surely the US show of force in the area goes beyond the American concern for its Philippine ally.

If this dispute is to be won through the strength of naval fleets and military superiority, then the lowly Juan is at the mercy of the Red Dragon. But public international law may just give the Philippines a chance. Despite China’s aggression, the PCA ruled in favor of the Philippines, and such ruling is gaining international support. China is pressured to argue using the UNCLOS, and submit to the court’s jurisdiction. Only when the PCA rules on the merits of the case, and China complies with such decision that public international law will achieve such prominence.



[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-1446c419-fc55-4a07-9527-a6199f5dc0e2
[2] http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2015/06/23/1469099/filipino-fishers-appeal-un-vs-china-rights-violations
[3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-16/chinese-editorial-warns-raaf-planes-could-be-shot-down/7034664
[4] Cronin, Patrick. 2013. “The Strategic Significance of the South China Sea” download from http://csis.org/files/attachments/130606_Cronin_ConferencePaper.pdf

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